election_tracker.utf8.md

Live Results

As of 9:24 AM, 67 voters in 17 wards have shared their voter number. I estimate that 142,512 people have voted in person across the city (95% Confidence Interval: 118,048 - 168,193). In addition, 342,044 mail-in ballots have already been returned, and 93,385 are still outstanding.

Maps

I use historic correlations among divisions’ turnout to estimate turnout in the divisions with no data yet. I simultaneously estimate (1) the overall city-wide turnout, (2) divisions’ over-/under-performance, and (3) the city-wide time pattern of voting. See the Methodology.

Total Turnout (In-Person + Mail-In)

In-Person Turnout

Mail-In Requests

Mail-In Ballots Returned

Raw Responses (for debugging)

Submissions

Data Tables

For those of you who like tables with numbers.

**Estimated Turnout by Ward**

ward	time_of_day	turnout	turnout_p025	turnout_p975

01	9:24 AM	2043	c(`2.5%` = 1532)	c(`97.5%` = 2383)
02	9:24 AM	3379	c(`2.5%` = 2520)	c(`97.5%` = 3910)
03	9:24 AM	1855	c(`2.5%` = 1503)	c(`97.5%` = 2344)
04	9:24 AM	1835	c(`2.5%` = 1499)	c(`97.5%` = 2429)
05	9:24 AM	4621	c(`2.5%` = 3481)	c(`97.5%` = 5388)
06	9:24 AM	1245	c(`2.5%` = 1031)	c(`97.5%` = 1528)
07	9:24 AM	988	c(`2.5%` = 592)	c(`97.5%` = 1879)
08	9:24 AM	4725	c(`2.5%` = 3531)	c(`97.5%` = 5547)
09	9:24 AM	2454	c(`2.5%` = 1799)	c(`97.5%` = 2859)
10	9:24 AM	2739	c(`2.5%` = 2217)	c(`97.5%` = 3428)
11	9:24 AM	1176	c(`2.5%` = 949)	c(`97.5%` = 1616)
12	9:24 AM	2018	c(`2.5%` = 1658)	c(`97.5%` = 2598)
13	9:24 AM	1824	c(`2.5%` = 1494)	c(`97.5%` = 2406)
14	9:24 AM	797	c(`2.5%` = 665)	c(`97.5%` = 953)
15	9:24 AM	2463	c(`2.5%` = 1889)	c(`97.5%` = 2849)
16	9:24 AM	966	c(`2.5%` = 756)	c(`97.5%` = 1382)
17	9:24 AM	2258	c(`2.5%` = 1845)	c(`97.5%` = 2916)
18	9:24 AM	1851	c(`2.5%` = 1521)	c(`97.5%` = 2141)
19	9:24 AM	822	c(`2.5%` = 556)	c(`97.5%` = 1440)
20	9:24 AM	801	c(`2.5%` = 614)	c(`97.5%` = 1127)
21	9:24 AM	5266	c(`2.5%` = 4177)	c(`97.5%` = 6306)
22	9:24 AM	3103	c(`2.5%` = 2396)	c(`97.5%` = 3776)
23	9:24 AM	1619	c(`2.5%` = 1239)	c(`97.5%` = 2085)
24	9:24 AM	1319	c(`2.5%` = 1071)	c(`97.5%` = 1605)
25	9:24 AM	1337	c(`2.5%` = 923)	c(`97.5%` = 1735)
26	9:24 AM	2011	c(`2.5%` = 1552)	c(`97.5%` = 2459)
27	9:24 AM	2016	c(`2.5%` = 1455)	c(`97.5%` = 2643)
28	9:24 AM	1034	c(`2.5%` = 809)	c(`97.5%` = 1488)
29	9:24 AM	1056	c(`2.5%` = 874)	c(`97.5%` = 1268)
30	9:24 AM	2148	c(`2.5%` = 1703)	c(`97.5%` = 2414)
31	9:24 AM	1744	c(`2.5%` = 1305)	c(`97.5%` = 1964)
32	9:24 AM	1650	c(`2.5%` = 1289)	c(`97.5%` = 2338)
33	9:24 AM	1195	c(`2.5%` = 770)	c(`97.5%` = 2037)
34	9:24 AM	3869	c(`2.5%` = 3195)	c(`97.5%` = 4628)
35	9:24 AM	2369	c(`2.5%` = 1777)	c(`97.5%` = 3099)
36	9:24 AM	3037	c(`2.5%` = 2510)	c(`97.5%` = 3501)
37	9:24 AM	1068	c(`2.5%` = 820)	c(`97.5%` = 1565)
38	9:24 AM	1947	c(`2.5%` = 1606)	c(`97.5%` = 2318)
39	9:24 AM	4044	c(`2.5%` = 2933)	c(`97.5%` = 4861)
40	9:24 AM	3696	c(`2.5%` = 3048)	c(`97.5%` = 4661)
41	9:24 AM	1552	c(`2.5%` = 1065)	c(`97.5%` = 2101)
42	9:24 AM	1750	c(`2.5%` = 1282)	c(`97.5%` = 2601)
43	9:24 AM	1352	c(`2.5%` = 945)	c(`97.5%` = 2227)
44	9:24 AM	1233	c(`2.5%` = 1007)	c(`97.5%` = 1626)
45	9:24 AM	1718	c(`2.5%` = 1232)	c(`97.5%` = 2170)
46	9:24 AM	2473	c(`2.5%` = 2045)	c(`97.5%` = 2985)
47	9:24 AM	689	c(`2.5%` = 551)	c(`97.5%` = 880)
48	9:24 AM	1670	c(`2.5%` = 1360)	c(`97.5%` = 2041)
49	9:24 AM	2167	c(`2.5%` = 1766)	c(`97.5%` = 2875)
50	9:24 AM	3350	c(`2.5%` = 2616)	c(`97.5%` = 4062)
51	9:24 AM	1993	c(`2.5%` = 1666)	c(`97.5%` = 2621)
52	9:24 AM	2657	c(`2.5%` = 2115)	c(`97.5%` = 3200)
53	9:24 AM	1681	c(`2.5%` = 1211)	c(`97.5%` = 2167)
54	9:24 AM	1172	c(`2.5%` = 749)	c(`97.5%` = 1680)
55	9:24 AM	2078	c(`2.5%` = 1448)	c(`97.5%` = 2809)
56	9:24 AM	3073	c(`2.5%` = 2240)	c(`97.5%` = 3977)
57	9:24 AM	2616	c(`2.5%` = 1932)	c(`97.5%` = 3275)
58	9:24 AM	4310	c(`2.5%` = 3173)	c(`97.5%` = 5461)
59	9:24 AM	2176	c(`2.5%` = 1793)	c(`97.5%` = 2680)
60	9:24 AM	1755	c(`2.5%` = 1439)	c(`97.5%` = 2179)
61	9:24 AM	2445	c(`2.5%` = 1999)	c(`97.5%` = 3169)
62	9:24 AM	1803	c(`2.5%` = 1223)	c(`97.5%` = 2485)
63	9:24 AM	2587	c(`2.5%` = 1967)	c(`97.5%` = 3218)
64	9:24 AM	1424	c(`2.5%` = 1039)	c(`97.5%` = 1837)
65	9:24 AM	2095	c(`2.5%` = 1605)	c(`97.5%` = 2647)
66	9:24 AM	4308	c(`2.5%` = 3317)	c(`97.5%` = 5268)

Raw Submissions

**Submitted Data**

Time of Vote	Precinct	Voter Number

7:10 AM	5107	2
7:41 AM	0537	24
7:42 AM	0501	14
7:43 AM	0828	33
7:03 AM	2714	2
7:40 AM	1508	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:25 AM	0214	16
7:56 AM	3636	33
7:13 AM	0218	9
8:07 AM	4603	27
8:16 AM	0218	60
8:18 AM	0222	68
8:10 AM	1810	36
8:20 AM	3635	57
8:30 AM	3110	55
8:32 AM	0532	69
8:30 AM	2707	45
8:32 AM	2702	48
8:15 AM	3901	52
8:15 AM	3640	64
8:38 AM	3638	55
8:38 AM	3637	31
8:42 AM	0525	64
8:40 AM	0501	36
7:30 AM	0202	28
8:40 AM	0537	56
8:12 AM	4616	41
8:35 AM	3909	65
8:43 AM	0517	69
8:49 AM	0834	73
8:49 AM	0206	69
8:50 AM	0828	77
8:07 AM	0801	40
7:30 AM	3640	31
7:30 AM	3104	29
8:50 AM	0213	25
8:40 AM	2717	56
8:45 AM	2101	47
8:25 AM	3945	52
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
9:02 AM	1503	92
7:15 AM	0902	12
8:40 AM	2717	56
7:01 AM	0807	13
9:09 AM	4701	73
8:50 AM	0213	25
9:10 AM	1514	81
7:55 AM	1517	30
9:00 AM	3914	40
8:00 AM	5702	60
8:30 AM	2105	91
8:30 AM	2105	91
9:15 AM	2714	51
8:15 AM	2605	56
9:20 AM	3637	100
9:20 AM	3638	79
8:30 AM	0521	92
9:20 AM	0532	112
9:15 AM	1802	73
9:24 AM	2911	62
9:03 AM	0229	95
9:23 AM	0812	138
8:50 AM	0828	77
9:00 AM	3107	100

Download the csvs: - Raw Submissions - Division Predictions

Live 2020 Election Turnout Tracker